Obama's overture to Russia is doomed to fail

Apparently Obama has offered Russia a (not so) secret compromise, in which the US gives up on missile installations in Eastern Europe if Russia convinces Iran to give up its nuclear program and long-range missile development. My prediction is that Russia won't outright refuse, and it might even show signs of accepting, but Iran will definitely not be disarmed. Russia will perhaps issue some token public statement urging Iran to give up its military ambitions, but they will be intentionally half-hearted, and they might even communicate privately with Iran that they have no intention of stopping their support of these programs.

Or, perhaps, Russia will take the opportunity to squeeze Iran, allowing it much desired access to its oil and natural gas reserves.

Either way, Iran's nuclear program guarantees Russia a tighter hold on energy to Europe from the Caspian, and it's vital to the Kremlin's foreign policy that Iran stays an enemy of the West.